An online search for "Aster" yields a peculiar mix of results. You find pages for the common fall aster, a resilient perennial flower. You find an obituary for an Aster Lee Wade. You find analyses of the filmmaker Ari Aster, a director known for his meticulous and unsettling brand of horror. And then you find the price chart for the Aster (ASTER) token, which, depending on your portfolio, might feel like a blend of all three.

Just last week, the Binance-linked decentralized exchange token was trading at a record high of around $2.43. As of Tuesday, it was fighting to hold support at $1.80, a correction of more than 25%. For traders, the question is not one of botany or cinema, but of finance: Is this a seasonal wilting before a new bloom, or the beginning of a much darker story?

The case for a rebound is purely technical, a story told in the lines and patterns drawn over four-hour candles. The aster coin has fallen into what analysts call a “hot support” zone, a price range between $1.60 and $1.80 that has, in the past, served as a launchpad for significant bounces. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe, for one, points to this history, anticipating a potential rebound of 15% to 35% in the coming days.

This view is reinforced by a textbook "falling wedge" pattern on the chart. In the tidy world of technical analysis, this formation often precedes a bullish reversal. If the pattern holds and the price breaks out decisively, the projected move targets the $2.22–$2.45 range in October. Trader BitcoinHabebe is even more optimistic, calling the current range an “accumulation” zone and predicting a move to $3 if the support holds.

It’s a clean, compelling narrative. Buy at support, wait for the pattern to confirm, and target a 35%-plus rally. But financial markets are rarely so clean, and the Aster chart is telling another, more bearish story simultaneously. The same price action can be framed as a descending triangle, a pattern characterized by a flat support line and a series of lower highs. This structure suggests buying pressure is waning. If the floor at $1.60 gives way, the measured move for this pattern points toward $1.26, a target that would wipe out any hope of a quick recovery.

The Inescapable Math of the Supply Schedule

The Gravity of the Supply Schedule

This is where my analysis departs from the simple reading of charts. The battle between the falling wedge and the descending triangle is a sideshow. The main event for the Aster token in October is not a pattern, but a number: 183.13 million.

On October 17, that many ASTER tokens are scheduled to be unlocked and enter circulation. At current prices, that’s about $325 million of new supply hitting the market in a single day.

The bullish counterargument is that the Aster DEX is liquid enough to handle it. The project processes nearly $1 billion in daily trading volume and boasts over $2.26 billion in total value locked (TVL), signaling a robust ecosystem. This is a fair point. In the growing market for decentralized perpetuals, Aster is a serious contender, rapidly gaining on competitors like Hyperliquid. The entire sector has seen explosive growth, jumping from a small slice of the crypto derivatives market—to be more exact, from a 4-6% share in early 2024 to 26% by mid-2025. This context suggests the market could theoretically absorb the new supply.

I’ve looked at hundreds of these token unlocks, and this is the part of the analysis where I find the bull case becomes dangerously simplistic. A single day’s trading volume is not a perfect proxy for a market's capacity to absorb a sudden, permanent increase in circulating supply (roughly 11% of the market cap). Volume measures churn; it does not measure the net new capital required to prevent a supply shock from depressing the price.

The more salient data point comes from trader Gordon, who highlights the unlock schedule beyond October. He notes that roughly $700 million worth of ASTER is set to unlock by the end of the year. This isn't a one-time event; it's a sustained, programmatic increase in supply. The question isn't whether Aster's liquidity can withstand a single wave, but whether it can fight a relentless tide. While the project is reportedly considering a vesting schedule for airdrop recipients to mitigate this, details remain scarce.

For now, traders are left with two competing realities. One is a price chart offering the potential for a quick, technical bounce. The other is a tokenomics schedule that guarantees significant, ongoing sell pressure. The former is a bet on short-term sentiment. The latter is a statement of mathematical fact.

An Appointment with Issuance

In the short term, a relief rally from the $1.60 support level is entirely plausible; markets are rarely rational. But over the medium term, the persistent gravity of a $700 million supply overhang is a fundamental headwind that no chart pattern can erase. Technical support can hold back a wave, but it eventually breaks against a rising tide. My analysis suggests that any rally in the aster price will likely be an opportunity for early investors to exit into liquidity before the next unlock, not the start of a sustainable trend to new highs. The numbers on the issuance schedule are simply more powerful than the lines on the chart.

Reference article source：

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