Halliburton's Wall Street Glow-Up: Smoke and Mirrors, or a Real Turnaround?

Halliburton's been getting a lot of love from Wall Street lately. Upgrades, price target increases – the whole shebang. Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $35 target. Jefferies bumped their target to $32, Argus Research to $31, and even Goldman Sachs joined the party, nudging their target up to $28. TD Cowen is the outlier, sitting way up at $38.

But let’s pump the brakes for a minute. Halliburton trades near $27 per share as of November 2025. Flat. For the year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has climbed 16.5%. Is this analyst optimism justified, or are we seeing a classic case of Wall Street groupthink?

Drilling Down into the Data

Third-quarter revenue did beat expectations, coming in at $5.6 billion against an estimated $5.4 billion. Not bad. But the headline GAAP net income of $18 million is… well, misleading. It includes a $478 million one-time charge. Adjusted earnings paint a better picture at $496 million, and an adjusted operating margin of 13% is respectable. North American revenue increased 5% quarter-over-quarter to $2.4 billion, which suggests some strength in their core market.

Halliburton is also talking about cost reduction measures. They're aiming for $100 million in quarterly savings. That's a positive, but the question is, where are these cuts coming from, and will they impact long-term growth?

Then there are the strategic partnerships. The VoltaGrid deal to supply on-site natural gas power for AI data centers (specifically, a 2.3 gigawatt project for Oracle) is intriguing. It’s a diversification play, leveraging their energy expertise in a new sector. And the framework agreement with Shell to deploy their Remote Open-close Subsea (ROCS) technology for deepwater drilling – that's a solid win, suggesting Halliburton remains a leader in specialized oilfield services. Shell Agreement Showcases Halliburton’s (HAL) Automation Push—But How Transformative Is ROCS Technology? - Yahoo Finance Revenue and earnings are projected to be $22.1 billion and $2.0 billion respectively by 2028.

The Burry Factor and Community Sentiment

Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management disclosed a new position in Halliburton. Now, Burry’s a smart guy, but blindly following any single investor is a recipe for disaster. Still, it's a data point. Institutional ownership remains strong at around 86%. These aren't retail investors chasing hype; these are institutions making (presumably) informed decisions.

I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and the level of institutional ownership is high but not unusual for a company of Halliburton's size and sector.

Online communities are, as always, a mixed bag. Simply Wall St community members have assigned fair values ranging from US$20 to US$43.39. That's… a wide range. It tells you more about the uncertainty surrounding Halliburton than any concrete valuation. (And serves as a reminder to take random internet valuations with a massive grain of salt.)

Analysts are projecting a recovery in the oilfield services sector starting in 2027, and global upstream capital expenditures are forecast to grow about 3% annually from 2025 to 2030. Halliburton is prioritizing capital discipline and free cash flow generation over growth investments. That's a defensive move, suggesting they're not betting on a massive boom.

But here's the part of the report I find genuinely puzzling: Halliburton's stock is flat despite all this supposedly good news. Multiple analyst upgrades rarely leave a stock unmoved.

Halliburton's PR department wants you to think they're innovative, forward-thinking, and ready to dominate the future of energy. But their actions suggest a more cautious approach.

And that is where I begin to think they are not betting on a massive boom.

A Calculated Gamble, Not a Sure Thing

Halliburton's Wall Street glow-up isn't necessarily smoke and mirrors, but it's definitely not a slam dunk. The company is making smart moves, focusing on cost control and strategic partnerships. But the flat stock price tells a different story. The market isn't convinced. And frankly, neither am I.